Politicians will go for snap elections to beat the rap for economic crisis expected in 2009 – Andry Yermolayev

September15200820:46

For all the breast-beating by politicians about their reluctance to face snap elections, the looming economic crisis in 2009 will spur them into saving their face by opting for pre-term elections. For them, campaign battles are better than the daily grind in the conditions of economic crisis when they must take responsibility for what they are doing, Andry Yermolayev, political expert and director of the Sofia think tank, claimed, speaking to ZIK Sept. 15.

With political infighting in the limelight, it is difficult for political experts to predict the future, Yermolayev said. He is convinced that entangled economic trends in 2009 will pose many threats for Ukraine. The first threat is linked to systemic challenges to the country’s largely unreformed economy, with the potential of raw materials sectors exhausted. This is the case with mining and agricultural sectors. As Ukraine integrates in the WTO, new risks will surface for domestic market-targeted economy sectors. Eventually, the trend may result in the slowdown of domestic production, leading to a deferred crisis in 2009.

Price spikes for energy, the second economic risk, may provoke serious social tensions. The third risk is subjective and is rooted in Kyiv’s unbalanced policy towards the Kremlin. There is a threat that Ukraine may lose a number of markets and may even face a trade war with Russia. All the abovementioned risks may make 2009 the worst year since Ukraine has won its independence in 1991.

Against the background of a looming crisis, the games played by Ukraine’s power-greedy politicians can either be explained by their irresponsible attitude or their wish to push the country towards radical steps that will be taken under extraordinary circumstances. Such radical steps, Yermolayev opined, may include frantic privatization, hit-and-miss reforms in the land sales sector allegedly implemented to curb the crisis.

The new coalition will be a tactical one, with the sole purpose of delaying the elections. “Frictions among the major parties have reached their climax. Had we lived in a country where civil society can control the executive, all our problems could have been dealt with by lawmakers. Unfortunately, in Ukraine, the problems figure only on newspaper pages. This is evidence that Ukraine has still a long way to go to a democracy,” Yermolayev said.

Yermolayev predicts temporary unions and coalitions emerging in Verkhovna Rada. They will be only tactical unions, accompanying the country’s inevitable edging towards the early elections.

Snap elections are almost a certainty, the expert says. They will be bad news for Pres Yushchenko as voters will grade his track record.