Yushchenko is prepared to sacrifice his bloc’s rating to wring premiership from Tymoshenko

October06200820:43

In his opinion, there are two likely scenarios. In the first scenario, Ukraine will have a snap election in December. This scenario is possible if the incumbent sees that the compromise with Tymoshenko is out of the question and she will be his major political opponent. Given this, Yushchenko won’t tolerate Tymoshenko’s premiership, with snap elections providing a legitimate ground for her resignation. “The president is even prepared to sacrifice his bloc’s rating in the snap elections to oust Tymoshenko. Yushchenko expects that he will be able to beef up his approval rating in 2009 in the run-up to the 2010 presidential election. If Tymoshenko finds herself in the oppsition, Yushchenko can become the upper dog,” Yermolayev believes, adding that pro-presidential political parties will suffer the most as there won’t be much time left for serious preparations. In this case, the president will have to face a tough coalition in VR.

In the other scenario, snap elections will be delayed until spring 2009. It will buy the president time for serious ideological and organizational preparations, as well as have parties, other than Our Ukraine and Single Center, in his corner, notably, Speaker Yatseniuk’s future party. As an extra benefit, spring snap elections will allow Yushchenko to put the blame for economic shortfalls on the Tymoshenko cabinet and strengthen his position by lambasting the government. Here, the major risk is that Yulia Tymoshenko and BYUT won’t take it lying down, something that will raise political tensions to the boiling point.

Which of the two scenarios Yushchenko will chose will become evident after Oct. 7 consultations between BYUT and NUNS on the coalition.

Andryj Yermolayev believes chances of a power grab by Yushchenko are slim. “If Yushchenko disbands VR and blocs election campaigning, he will face an impeachment and snap presidential elections. Verkhovna Rada will rebel. Therefore, this scenario won’t be favored by Yushchenko,” the expert opined.

Although external factors can matter in the decision to call early elections, their impact should not be exaggerated. “December snap election will coincide in time with the NATO summit. Clearly, the election campaign, given its the mud-slinging and empty drum-beating, won’t give much shine to Ukraine. That is why, the incumbent will not benefit in this case. In this sense, a spring snap election seems a more attractive option,” the expert said.

On the other hand, Russia, given its feet-dragging on gas prices for Ukraine, might cash in on the forthcoming election campaign. “These factors, however, are not decisive and should be viewed merely as political risks. Fears of direct intrusion from abroad have been overplayed, although the forthcoming campaigning will reflect the interests of Russia and the USA,” Yermolayev believes.